Social is Stale pt. 1
A big idea about where our social networks are heading and why Tiktok and Snapchat are leading the charge
Humans naturally are drawn to activities that release dopamine. Whether that activity is watching sports, doing drugs, trading stocks, or eating chocolate, everyone has their fix. For most of the world, social media provides just enough of a daily dosage to keep us addicted. I don’t have a specific metric, but I would bet that some eye-popping percentage of people with an internet connection are on social media in some way.
While the science behind dopamine hasn’t changed, social media has started its shift to a new frontier. Watching the intimate conversation below between Kevin Kwok and Eugene Wei about Tiktok, creativity, and a plethora of other topics made me think about how we consume content and where the world is heading. (PS Kevin or Eugene, if you read this, please do more episodes. The first was fantastic.)
When you’re on Instagram, LinkedIn, Twitter, or any other feed-based network, you are met with a never-ending stream of content. The term “feed” is used to describe a data format that gives users frequently updated content. Viewing it from a different lens, it’s also the “device or conduit for supplying material to a machine”. The latter definition is what makes all these social networks aggregators.
Per the Ben Thompson definition, the aggregator owns the customers, and from there the suppliers will follow. This is visible in the image below with companies like Facebook or LinkedIn corralling users and then adding ads and sponsored articles to their feeds.
As Kevin points out in the conversation mentioned above, feeds were the natural landing place for our current wave of social networks from the start. The supply of content, both paid and user-created, significantly outstripped eyeballs (aka demand). This led to the need for algorithms that could moderate user content. These algorithms funneled views and increased revenue, while also providing users with content they care about.
The algorithms also concentrated feeds by inevitably creating “super-users,” aka influencers, who realized they could game feeds by posting the most content and getting the most eyeballs. Economic incentives were built into social networks, so frequent content creation was a natural way to monetize popularity. While Facebook and Instagram tend to be the best examples of content concentration, it happens elsewhere as well, with each networks’ algorithm pushing super-users’ content to the front of feeds, where eyeballs were designed to be.
However, concentration has made social networks less appealing. Constant consumption of super-user content isn’t releasing the same amount of dopamine as it used to. According to eMarketer Instagram’s US MAU growth rate is supposed to slow from 3.2% in 2021, to 2.2% in 2022, and then 1.8% in 2023. While not a reliable measure, I couldn’t tell you a single person who enjoys Facebook or LinkedIn anymore, and Instagram love is waning. Twitter also just doesn’t quite have the appeal of its competitors, although it fits a different mold, which I’ll get to later.
What is boring about the networks I mentioned is that the feeds almost always look the same. Instagram influencers post pictures on vacation, friends post meals, coworkers post job updates… you know what your feeds show. We all follow different people, but the content is the same. Kevin makes an interesting point during the video where he says the following (emphasis my own), which was influenced by one of Eugene’s articles:
…and we have chronological feeds. So it’s optimized at the feed level, and Tiktok has something at a specific content-level, how does this one video punch… by forcing you watch one video at a time, it’s a fine tuned-thing on an item-level
As you can see in the chart above, Tiktok soared to popularity over the pandemic. Kevin’s hunch about the line-item level of Tiktoks being the anti-chronological feed is spot on, in my opinion. It enables Tiktok to understand its users on a more personal level. Other social networks, except for Snapchat, focus on their user’s relationships between friends and family. They create network effects thanks to FOMO and attention, but the content created by friends and family has to compete with that of super-users in our feeds.
Tiktok can have the same amount of supply as other social networks, but without dilution of value, because you’re only looking at one video at a time. That supply can easily carry it to the same atmospheric highs and longevity as the other networks. Its monetization comes through ads, which are embedded in the For You Page, which feel seamless and a part of the non-linear experience. Almost like TV ads that you can skip. Skippability isn’t a problem for ad-buyers either, because Tiktok currently has all the eyeballs thanks to an endless, new supply of content.
Tiktok’s algorithm will provide you with content regardless of whether or not you follow someone, which means constant distribution and therefore constant chances of virality. Going back to the dopamine release we get from social media, the potential for virality is a constant push to create more content. The content is always changing, videos can be built upon and interacted with using other videos (and those can be interacted with, and so on), and it feels like new methods of creation pop up daily.
Snapchat feels similar. As Eugene points out about 50 minutes into the conversation, Snap is the only other company that “put an operating system on top of the mobile operating system”. You’re presented first with the camera, which feels like it’s the operating system. Not a feed. We’ve seen Snap’s DAU’s growing for a while and it doesn’t look to be slowing.
(Source: Snap Partner Summit 2021)
Snap has made it easy for creators, developers, and partners to build upon the platform. They are leading the social AR universe, and launched Lens Studio (an AR development platform for partners). They also launched Lens Creator Marketplace, which will help creators and advertisers self-serve and create content for Snap’s AR experience. Users can build analytics, machine learning, and other features directly into the experience as well.
Snap also shared that the creator tools in its developer platform, Snap Kit, are used over a billion times a day. It has more than 250,000 developers regularly using the Kit, which has added support for installs, conversion, engagement, and retention. Snap also has Games, Minis, and tons of other avenues for creation atop its operating system. Snap’s value prop isn’t a feed with chronological content, but rather the user’s opportunity to create on top of its platform. Snap stepped away from forcing the social network and feed parts of its platform to focus primarily on the social messaging aspect. Snap has honed in on build-first user features that enable the creation of new worlds, rather than scrolling through what’s happening in the existing one.
So where are social networks going? It feels like there is a momentum building around a few trends:
Less reliance on chronological, concentrated feeds*
Growth in distributed, unique, single-focus creation
Inspiration and iteration, not repetition
Tiktok and Snap both revolve around all three of the above and that’s what has pushed them into the forefront of user and investor attention. The lack of feeds prevents monotony of content and a decentralization of supply (sorry, buzzword but with a different meeting). A new generation of creators will stretch the limits of what was initially thought possible on these social platforms and expand past initial use cases/visions. Lastly, anyone will be able to create anything and what we see will no longer fit molds. Social is moving away from commodity-type posts and headed towards creatives seeking your eyes and genuine attention. Tiktok and Snap are the first social networks to focus not only on consumption as a dopamine rush, but construction as well.
**While I do believe that feeds will end up being a part of legacy social networks, I am still very bullish on Twitter as a source of education, news, and creative content that is not monotonous in any way. Twitter is the reason I am writing this post and where I’ve learned more in the last year than anywhere else.