OnlyFans and Vicarious Economics
How the company is poised to succeed and bring back the "behind the scenes" peek at the lives of celebrities
One of my favorite childhood shows was MTV’s Cribs. Over the course of 30 minutes you got an inside tour of celebrities’ houses and personal lives. While in-house technology was limited, the grandeur and peek into the quirks of these megastars was thrilling. It felt like we were interacting with them and got to be a part of their inner circle. I remember watching 50 Cent’s tour and having my breath taken away with how incredible his home was. Bear in mind, he was the biggest star on the planet in the early 2000’s. Cribs was access to 50 Cent’s life.
Today it’s a lot harder to get real glimpses into the lives of celebrities. Instagram videos and reality shows feel fake. Paparazzi can only capture brief glimpses outdoors. The demand to know what celebrities are like on the inside hasn’t faded. Cameo and OnlyFans bring us closest to our favorite celebrities, and their growth might show some clues about the future of celebrity self-monetization.
Last week it was announced that OnlyFans is in the works to raise funding at a valuation at over a billion dollars, becoming another entrant to the unicorn club. It’s *profitable*, has over 130 million subscribers, and did $2B in sales (GMV) last year. It takes a 20% cut on creator sales/subscriptions, meaning it had a top line of $400MM. That is a very healthy business on paper. Frankly, $1B seems pretty cheap.
Their CEO, Tim Stokely said that “athletes are a creator genre we’re seeing a lot of growth in.” Celebrities like Floyd Mayweather and Cardi B are on the platform, with others starting to flock to it in droves. Floyd said “I’m looking forward to sharing a glimpse into my life and some never-before-seen content while getting to know top fans”. Of course, in addition to celebrities there are a slew of porn-stars and other models who focus on the NSFW market. OnlyFans acknowledges that they have the reputation on the raunchier side, but are looking to shed that and broaden their horizons. It’s often overlooked how many chefs, personal trainers, and other skilled-professionals also use OnlyFans to monetize their services. But the successes from raunchier photos and videos are hard to ignore. One creator, Corinna Kopf, made $165,000 for posting a single picture on OnlyFans. For what it’s worth, Corinna apparently gave a lot of money away to folks who needed some help.
Ty makes an interesting point in his Tweet. Celebrities with strong enough followings can make a lot of money. Even compared to budding industries like eSports. If OnlyFans can convert celebrities into creators on its platform, NSFW or otherwise, the market opportunity expands enormously.
Think about someone like Patrick Mahomes, arguably the most popular quarterback in the NFL right now. If he wanted to give a behind the scenes look at his life, training regimen, diet, and more and charge $5 a month for it, a lot of people would subscribe. Diehards in Kansas City, NFL fans, aspiring quarterbacks, and others would pull the trigger. Think of the magic of Cribs, or in this case something like Hard Knocks, but for an individual. If he gets 50,000 people to sign up that’s $250,000 (50,000 * $5) a month in GMV. $200,000 goes to Mahomes and OnlyFans walks away with $50,000. Not bad for either on a yearly basis, and those numbers are frankly conservative.
Where it gets interesting is adding sponsored content within the experience. Demi Rose, a top instagram model, joined OnlyFans looking to “monetize [herself] properly”. She’d been primarily posting sponsored posts on Instagram and elsewhere, but had seen the success of others. She’s part of a group hoping to break the stigma of OnlyFans only being for NSFW photos and videos through backstage access and specialized content. She joins Cardi B, Tyga, and many others trying to diversify their own income streams purely through likeness. Demi emphasized that “her posts on OnlyFans would be different from other social media accounts.” She finished with “It makes me feel empowered.”
(Source: Peter Yang)
OnlyFans has a lot of work to do to change their branding, but is clearly getting attention from some very high profile celebrities. Building traction as a place where users can monetize themselves for ways other than porn or NSFW photos will be tricky. However, with people like Cardi B monetizing herself despite her already enormous platform, the door starts to become clearer and open to others. OnlyFans’ >$1B valuation certainly seems cheap. I’d invest if I could.